Down the Stretch They Come, Part II

On Tuesday, I took a look at the American League playoff races as we enter the final month of the season. Today, let's turn our attention on the National League (where they play real baseball, without DHs and fake grass), and check out the teams that still have hope of reaching the World Series.

Although I went division-by-division in the AL, I'm going to take a slightly different approach in the National League because two of the divisions (and arguably all three) are already decided. So let's look at this from the perspective of the league as a whole. In the NL, there are five legitimate World Series contenders, and to be honest I could see any of them playing until the final week in October. However, there are also two teams that aren't real contenders, but are trying to pretend like they are. Lets get them out of the way early.

Florida - Not enough experience. Too much inconsistent play. Not enough good arms. As for something positive, well, finishing above .500 (which they should do) is quite an accomplishment when you consider how small their payroll is.

Atlanta - Not enough power bats. Not enough offense, period. Not enough in the bullpen. On the bright side, this team has the potential to build something pretty good around their solid starting pitching. I'm not saying they will win the division next year, but by 2011 they could be a World Series team.

Okay, now on to the real contenders (listed in order of their record entering Friday)

Los Angeles (80-55) - Despite being the favorite to win the NL for most of the summer, the Dodgers are now probably considered underdogs to both the Phillies and the Cardinals. Their pitching has gotten weaker as the year went on, injuries have piled up, and the offense can't compete with the likes of Holliday/Pujols or Utley/Howard. Even the Dodger's front office realized that fact last week when they made a desperation trades for Jon Garland and Jim Thome. Garland is no where near the pitcher he was in 2005, and while Thome is still a great hitter, he's now a defensive liability. I doubt the Dodgers will start him in place of James Loney at first base, so all he's going to be good for is some late-inning pinch-hits. Before the trade, the Dodgers were probably the third best team in the NL, and as far as I'm concerned that's where they remain. Of course, if Thome hits a couple big pinch-hit homers in October and the Dodgers go to the World Series, disregard this entire paragraph.

Philadelphia (77-54) - The defending World Champions have gone 16-6 since getting swept by Florida a few weeks back, effectively locking up their third consecutive division title (matching the franchise record set by the 1976-78 Phillies). Anything less than another trip to the World Series will be considered a disappointment after acquiring Cliff Lee, but there are still a few concerns. Brad Lidge has looked better lately, but he's still making everyone in Philly nervous. The offense (minus Ryan Howard) has been struggling a bit. Cole Hamels, on the other hand, has just pitched 17 consecutive scoreless innings and looks to be getting back into form. The Phillies have all the pieces, and the experience, to win it all again, but the NL is so wide open right now that anything could happen in October.

St. Louis (79-56) - Since trading for Matt Holliday at the end of July, the Cardinals have been 27-10. If you multiply that pace out for the entire season, St. Louis would win 118 games. Oh, and they have the best pure hitter in baseball today, a guy that scares you anytime he comes to the plate, in Albert Pujols. Quietly, they also have two of the best pitchers in the National League in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, both of whom have a chance to win over 20 games. There really are no weaknesses, and even if there were, Tony LaRussa wouldn't let you take advantage of them. Again, the National League is too well-balanced to have a clear favorite, but don't be surprised to see the Cardinals in the World Series for the third time in six years.

Colorado (74-60) - The Rockies are definitely the wild card in the National League playoff picture (pun intended). After bottoming out at 20-32 in early June, they have really turned it around under Jim Tracy's leadership. I'm not convinced they have enough pitching or enough offense to make the playoffs, but don't tell them that. Over the next two weeks, they don't play a single game against a contending team, so now is the time to build their lead, because the last couple weeks of the season will be tough, with series against San Francisco, St. Louis, and Los Angeles. They've been a great story, but if I had to pick the one team out of these five most likely to fade down the stretch, its Colorado.

San Francisco (73-61) - I'm not sure if the Giants are going to score enough runs to overtake Colorado for the Wild Card, but if they do, this will be a scary team in the playoffs. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been solid all season, and Barry Zito has finally remembered how to pitch (and has allowed fewer than three earned runs in every start but one since June 12). Throw in Jonathan Sanchez, who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, and this is a pitching staff you do not want to see in October. Again, the offense is a major problem, so a team like Philly or St. Louis should be able to score enough to win a first round series, but it won't be easy.

So there you have it. Five contenders, two pretenders, and a month left to sort it all out.

All summer, it would have been a surprise to see anyone but Los Angeles in the World Series, but right now the National League is more wide open than anytime all season. If I had to make a pick, I'd say look for the Phillies and Cardinals to match up in the NLCS, and what a series that would be. Carpenter/Wainwright vs. Lee/Hamels. Holliday/Pujols vs. Utley/Howard. Not to mention the possibility of Lidge vs. Pujols in the ninth inning of a one-run game.

But, to be completely honest, I would not be any more surprised to see Giants/Dodgers or Rockies/Phillies or Dodgers/Cardinals or any other potential combination. May the best team win.

- Eric
www.WeAreTheHecklers.com